Towards global model generalizability: independent cross-site feature evaluation for patient-level risk prediction models using the OHDSI network.

BACKGROUND: Predictive models show promise in healthcare, but their successful deployment is challenging due to limited generalizability. Current external validation often focuses on model performance with restricted feature use from the original training data, lacking insights into their suitability at external sites. Our study introduces an innovative methodology for evaluating features during both the development phase and the validation, focusing on creating and validating predictive models for post-surgery patient outcomes with improved generalizability. METHODS: Electronic health records (EHRs) from 4 countries (United States, United Kingdom, Finland, and Korea) were mapped to the OMOP Common Data Model (CDM), 2008-2019. Machine learning (ML) models were developed to predict post-surgery prolonged opioid use (POU) risks using data collected 6 months before surgery. Both local and cross-site feature selection methods were applied in the development and external validation datasets. Models were developed using Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) tools and validated on separate patient cohorts. RESULTS: Model development included 41 929 patients, 14.6% with POU. The external validation included 31 932 (UK), 23 100 (US), 7295 (Korea), and 3934 (Finland) patients with POU of 44.2%, 22.0%, 15.8%, and 21.8%, respectively. The top-performing model, Lasso logistic regression, achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.75 during local validation and 0.69 (SD = 0.02) (averaged) in external validation. Models trained with cross-site feature selection significantly outperformed those using only features from the development site through external validation (P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Using EHRs across four countries mapped to the OMOP CDM, we developed generalizable predictive models for POU. Our approach demonstrates the significant impact of cross-site feature selection in improving model performance, underscoring the importance of incorporating diverse feature sets from various clinical settings to enhance the generalizability and utility of predictive healthcare models.

Upper Extremity Surgery in Cervical Spinal Cord Injury: A Prospective Comparative Mixed Methods Study.

BACKGROUND: Cervical spinal cord injury (SCI) is a devastating injury. Restoring upper extremity function is a top priority, which can be accomplished by tendon transfer (TT) and nerve transfer (NT) surgeries. The purpose of this prospective comparative study was to assess long-term changes in UE function between surgical (TT or NT) and non-surgical groups through a comprehensive mixed methods approach. METHODS: This multicenter, cohort study compared data among three groups: those undergoing 1) no surgery 2) TT surgery, or 3) NT surgery. Quantitative data, the Spinal Cord Independence Measure (SCIM) and Short Form Health Survey (SF-36), was collected at baseline and long-term follow-up (6-24 months). Qualitative semi-structured interview data was also obtained from these participants and their identified caregivers at baseline, early follow-up (1 month), and long-term follow-up (6-24 months). RESULTS: Thirty-one participants had quantitative data across all timepoints: no surgery (n=14), TT (n=7), and NT (n=10). SCIM scores improved in TT and NT groups compared to the no surgery group (p<0.05). SF-36 scores did not differ among groups. Qualitative data analysis (n=168 interviews) corroborated SCIM findings: surgical participants and their caregivers reported improvement in transfers and ability to perform activities of daily living, including grooming and self-catheterization. Improved use of electronics and ability to operate a motor vehicle were also reported. Post-operative therapy was identified as a critical component of achieving gains. CONCLUSION: Both TT and NT surgery leads to quantitative and qualitative functional gains as compared to the no surgery group. This comparative information should be used to help surgeons discuss treatment options.

Comparing surgeries to restore upper extremity function in tetraplegia: Impact on function during the perioperative period.

CONTEXT/OBJECTIVE: To assess short-term changes in health outcomes in people with cervical-level spinal cord injury (SCI) who underwent upper extremity (UE) reconstruction via either novel nerve transfer (NT) or traditional tendon transfer (TT) surgery with individuals who did not undergo UE surgical reconstruction. DESIGN: Prospective, comparative cohort pilot study. PARTICIPANTS: 34 participants with cervical SCI met the following inclusion criteria: age 18 or older, greater than 6 months post-injury, and mid-cervical level SCI American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale (AIS) A, B or C. SETTING: Two tertiary academic hospitals and their affiliated veterans' hospitals. METHODS: Health outcomes were assessed using two previously validated measures, the Spinal Cord Independence Measure (SCIM) and Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36). Demographic, surgical, and survey data were collected at the initial evaluation and one month postoperatively/post-baseline. RESULTS: 34 participants with cervical SCI were recruited across three cohorts: no surgery (n = 16), NT (n = 10), and TT (n = 8). The TT group had a decline in SCIM and SF-36 scores whereas the NT and no surgery groups experienced little change in independence or health status in the immediate perioperative period. CONCLUSIONS: Surgeons and rehabilitation providers must recognize differences in the perioperative needs of people with cervical SCI who chose to have restorative UE surgery. Future work should focus on further investigation of health outcomes, change in function, and improving preoperative counseling and cross-disciplinary management.

Postoperative opioid prescribing patients with diabetes: Opportunities for personalized pain management.

BACKGROUND: Opioids are commonly prescribed for postoperative pain, but may lead to prolonged use and addiction. Diabetes impairs nerve function, complicates pain management, and makes opioid prescribing particularly challenging. METHODS: This retrospective observational study included a cohort of postoperative patients from a multisite academic health system to assess the relationship between diabetes, pain, and prolonged opioid use (POU), 2008-2019. POU was defined as a new opioid prescription 3-6 months after discharge. The odds that a patient had POU was assessed using multivariate logistic regression controlling for patient factors (e.g., demographic and clinical factors, as well as prior pain and opiate use). FINDINGS: A total of 43,654 patients were included, 12.4% with diabetes. Patients with diabetes had higher preoperative pain scores (2.1 vs 1.9, p<0.001) and lower opioid naïve rates (58.7% vs 68.6%, p<0.001). Following surgery, patients with diabetes had higher rates of POU (17.7% vs 12.7%, p<0.001) despite receiving similar opioid prescriptions at discharge. Patients with Type I diabetes were more likely to have POU compared to other patients (Odds Ratio [OR]: 2.22; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]:1.69-2.90 and OR:1.44, CI: 1.33-1.56, respectively). INTERPRETATION: In conclusion, surgical patients with diabetes are at increased risk for POU even after controlling for likely covariates, yet they receive similar postoperative opiate therapy. The results suggest a more tailored approach to diabetic postoperative pain management is warranted.

Prediction of opioid-related outcomes in a medicaid surgical population: Evidence to guide postoperative opiate therapy and monitoring.

BACKGROUND: Treatment of surgical pain is a common reason for opioid prescriptions. Being able to predict which patients are at risk for opioid abuse, dependence, and overdose (opioid-related adverse outcomes [OR-AE]) could help physicians make safer prescription decisions. We aimed to develop a machine-learning algorithm to predict the risk of OR-AE following surgery using Medicaid data with external validation across states. METHODS: Five machine learning models were developed and validated across seven US states (90-10 data split). The model output was the risk of OR-AE 6-months following surgery. The models were evaluated using standard metrics and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used for model comparison. We assessed calibration for the top performing model and generated bootstrap estimations for standard deviations. Decision curves were generated for the top-performing model and logistic regression. RESULTS: We evaluated 96,974 surgical patients aged 15 and 64. During the 6-month period following surgery, 10,464 (10.8%) patients had an OR-AE. Outcome rates were significantly higher for patients with depression (17.5%), diabetes (13.1%) or obesity (11.1%). The random forest model achieved the best predictive performance (AUC: 0.877; F1-score: 0.57; recall: 0.69; precision:0.48). An opioid disorder diagnosis prior to surgery was the most important feature for the model, which was well calibrated and had good discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: A machine learning models to predict risk of OR-AE following surgery performed well in external validation. This work could be used to assist pain management following surgery for Medicaid beneficiaries and supports a precision medicine approach to opioid prescribing.

Surgery to restore upper extremity function in tetraplegia-Preferences for early and frequent access to information.

INTRODUCTION: People with cervical spinal cord injury (SCI) identify improving upper extremity (UE) function as a top priority. In addition to comprehensive rehabilitation, UE surgeries, including nerve and tendon transfers, enhance function. However, barriers exist to disseminating information about surgical options to enhance UE function. OBJECTIVE: To assess the experiences and preferences of people with cervical SCI and their caregivers in accessing information about surgery to enhance UE function. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. Participants were followed up for 24 months and completed up to three interviews. SETTING: Tertiary care at academic and affiliated Veterans Administration Health Care Centers. PARTICIPANTS: Adults with cervical SCI (n = 35) ages 18 to 80 years with mid-cervical SCI American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale A, B, or C (at least 6 months post-injury) and their caregivers (n = 23) were eligible to participate. Participants were enrolled in three groups: nerve transfer, tendon transfer, or no UE reconstructive surgery. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Semi-structured interviews about surgical knowledge and experiences. RESULTS: Data were analyzed and three themes were identified. First, providing information about UE surgical options early post-injury was recommended. The acute or inpatient rehabilitation phases of recovery were the preferred times to receive surgical information. Second, challenges with information dissemination were identified. Participants learned about UE surgery through independent research, medical provider interactions, or peers. Third, peers were identified as valuable resources for SCI needs and surgical information. CONCLUSIONS: Following cervical SCI, information about UE reconstructive surgeries should be a standard component of education during rehabilitation. An increased understanding of the reconstructive options available to improve UE function is necessary to educate stakeholders. Future research is needed to support the development of strategies to effectively present surgical information to individuals with SCI and health care providers.

Changes in postoperative opioid prescribing across three diverse healthcare systems, 2010-2020.

Objective: The opioid crisis brought scrutiny to opioid prescribing. Understanding how opioid prescribing patterns and corresponding patient outcomes changed during the epidemic is essential for future targeted policies. Many studies attempt to model trends in opioid prescriptions therefore understanding the temporal shift in opioid prescribing patterns across populations is necessary. This study characterized postoperative opioid prescribing patterns across different populations, 2010-2020. Data Source: Administrative data from Veteran Health Administration (VHA), six Medicaid state programs and an Academic Medical Center (AMC). Data extraction: Surgeries were identified using the Clinical Classifications Software. Study Design: Trends in average daily discharge Morphine Milligram Equivalent (MME), postoperative pain and subsequent opioid prescription were compared using regression and likelihood ratio test statistics. Principal Findings: The cohorts included 595,106 patients, with populations that varied considerably in demographics. Over the study period, MME decreased significantly at VHA (37.5-30.1; p = 0.002) and Medicaid (41.6-31.3; p = 0.019), and increased at AMC (36.9-41.7; p < 0.001). Persistent opioid users decreased after 2015 in VHA (p < 0.001) and Medicaid (p = 0.002) and increase at the AMC (p = 0.003), although a low rate was maintained. Average postoperative pain scores remained constant over the study period. Conclusions: VHA and Medicaid programs decreased opioid prescribing over the past decade, with differing response times and rates. In 2020, these systems achieved comparable opioid prescribing patterns and outcomes despite having very different populations. Acknowledging and incorporating these temporal distribution shifts into data learning models is essential for robust and generalizable models.

Analysis of Website Accessibility and Content for All 92 Accredited Hand Surgery Fellowship Programs in the United States: An Update.

Purpose: The internet is an important information source for hand surgery fellowship applicants. A previous analysis of hand fellowship websites in 2014 demonstrated they were often inaccessible and incomplete. Given the increased importance of virtual information, we performed an updated assessment of the accessibility and content of hand fellowship program websites. Methods: Websites of 92 accredited hand surgery fellowship programs were evaluated for the following: (1) accessibility; and (2) the presence of 13 fellow recruitment and 13 fellow education criteria, as defined in prior studies. We used Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis tests to assess whether the geographic region, number of fellows, or affiliation with a top orthopedic hospital or medical school were associated with website content. Results: Functional website links that redirect to the appropriate fellowship program website are provided for 47 (51.1%) of 92 programs on the American Society for Surgery of the Hand fellowship directory. All missing websites were accessible via independent Google searches. Fellowship program websites contained an average of 13.9 ± 4.4 total criteria (range, 3-23). Of the 15 criteria examined in both 2014 and 2021, there were significant (P < .05) increases in the prevalences of 4: current fellow(s), salary, social media links, and operative experience. Conclusions: Despite a slight increase in accessibility since 2014, nearly half of hand surgery fellowship program websites remain inaccessible from the American Society for Surgery of the Hand directory. Program websites averaged approximately half of the criteria analyzed, with many websites failing to provide information deemed important by applicants. Clinical relevance: Our study provides an impetus for improving the accessibility and content of hand surgery fellowship websites. A website that incorporates criteria examined in this study can serve as an effective recruitment tool by providing consistent baseline information that may help applicants decide which programs align with personal values and future career goals.

Do Proposed Quality Measures for Carpal Tunnel Release Reveal Important Quality Gaps and Are They Reliable?

BACKGROUND: The American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons recently proposed quality measures for the initial surgical treatment of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS). One measure addressed avoidance of adjunctive surgical procedures during carpal tunnel release; and a second measure addressed avoidance of routine use of clinic-based occupational and/or physical therapy (OT/PT) after carpal tunnel release. However, for quality measures to serve their intended purposes, they must be tested in real-world data to establish that gaps in quality exist and that the measures yield reliable performance information. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: (1) Is there an important quality gap in clinical practice for avoidance of adjunctive surgical procedures during carpal tunnel release? (2) Is there an important quality gap in avoiding routine use of clinic-based occupational and/or physical therapy after carpal tunnel release? (3) Do these two quality measures have adequate beta-binomial signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and split-sample reliability (SSR)? METHODS: This retrospective comparative study used a large national private insurance claims database, the 2018 Optum Clinformatics® Data Mart. Ideally, healthcare quality measures are tested within data reflective of the providers and payors to which the measures will be applied. We previously tested these measures in a large public healthcare system and a single academic medical center. In this study, we sought to test the measures in the broader context of patients and providers using private insurance. For both measures, we included the first carpal tunnel release from 28,083 patients performed by one of 7236 surgeons, irrespective of surgical specialty (including, orthopaedic, plastic, neuro-, and general surgery). To calculate surgeon-level descriptive and reliability statistics, analyses were focused on the 66% (18,622 of 28,083) of patients who received their procedure from one of the 24% (1740 of 7236) of surgeons with at least five carpal tunnel releases in the database. No other inclusion/exclusion criteria were applied. To determine whether the measures reveal important gaps in treatment quality (avoidance of adjunctive procedures and routine therapy), we calculated descriptive statistics (median and interquartile range) of the performance distribution stratified by surgeon-level annual volume of carpal tunnel releases in the database (5+, 10+, 15+, 20+, 25+, and 30+). Like the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), we considered a measure "topped out" if median performance was greater than 95%, meaning the opportunity for further quality improvement is low. We calculated the surgeon-level beta-binomial SNR and SSR for each measure, each stratified by the number of carpal tunnel releases performed by each surgeon in the database. These are standard measures of reliability in health care quality measurement science. The SNR quantifies the proportion of variance that is between rather than within surgeons, and the SSR is the correlation of performance scores when each surgeons' patients are split into two random samples and then corrected for sample size. RESULTS: We found that 2% (308 of 18,622) of carpal tunnel releases involved an adjunctive procedure. The results showed that avoidance of adjunctive surgical procedures during carpal tunnel release had a median (IQR) performance of 100% (100% to 100%) at all case volumes. Only 8% (144 of 1740) of surgeons with at least five cases in the database had less than 100% performance, and only 5% (84 of 1740) had less than 90% performance. This means adjunctive procedures were rarely performed and an important quality gap does not exist based on the CMS criterion. Regarding the avoidance of routine therapy, there was a larger quality gap: For surgeons with at least five cases in the database, median performance was 89% (75% to 100%), and 25% (435 of 1740) of these surgeons had less than 75% performance. This signifies that the measure is not topped out and may reveal an important quality gap. Most patients receiving clinic-based OT/PT had only one visit in the 6 weeks after surgery. Median (IQR) SNRs of the first measure, which addressed avoidance of adjunctive surgical procedures, and the second measure, which addresses avoidance of routine use clinic-based OT/PT, were 1.00 (1.00 to 1.00) and 0.86 (0.67 to 1.00), respectively. The SSR for these measures were 0.87 (95% CI 0.85 to 0.88) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.77), respectively. All of these reliability statistics exceed National Quality Forum's emerging minimum standard of 0.60. CONCLUSION: The first measure, the avoidance of adjunctive surgical procedures during carpal tunnel release, lacked an important quality gap suggesting it is unlikely to be useful in driving improvements. The second measure, avoidance of routine use of clinic-based OT/PT, revealed a larger quality gap and had very good reliability, suggesting it may be useful for quality monitoring and improvement purposes. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: As healthcare systems and payors use the second measure, avoidance of routine use of clinic-based OT/PT, to encourage adherence to clinical practice guidelines (such as provider profiling, public reporting, and payment policies), it will be critically important to consider what proportion of patients receiving OT/PT should be considered routine practice and therefore inconsistent with guidelines. The value or potential harm of this measure depends on this judgement.

Real-time infection prediction with wearable physiological monitoring and AI to aid military workforce readiness during COVID-19.

Infectious threats, like the COVID-19 pandemic, hinder maintenance of a productive and healthy workforce. If subtle physiological changes precede overt illness, then proactive isolation and testing can reduce labor force impacts. This study hypothesized that an early infection warning service based on wearable physiological monitoring and predictive models created with machine learning could be developed and deployed. We developed a prototype tool, first deployed June 23, 2020, that delivered continuously updated scores of infection risk for SARS-CoV-2 through April 8, 2021. Data were acquired from 9381 United States Department of Defense (US DoD) personnel wearing Garmin and Oura devices, totaling 599,174 user-days of service and 201 million hours of data. There were 491 COVID-19 positive cases. A predictive algorithm identified infection before diagnostic testing with an AUC of 0.82. Barriers to implementation included adequate data capture (at least 48% data was needed) and delays in data transmission. We observe increased risk scores as early as 6 days prior to diagnostic testing (2.3 days average). This study showed feasibility of a real-time risk prediction score to minimize workforce impacts of infection.

Neurovascular, Muscle, and Skin Changes on [18F]FDG PET/MRI in Complex Regional Pain Syndrome of the Foot: A Prospective Clinical Study.

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility of simultaneous [18F]-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for noninvasive visualization of muscular, neurovascular, and skin changes secondary to complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS). SUBJECTS: Seven adult patients with CRPS of the foot and seven healthy adult controls participated in our [18F]FDG PET/MRI study. METHODS: All participants received whole-body PET/MRI scans 1 hour after the injection of 370MBq [18F]FDG. Resulting PET/MRI images were reviewed by two radiologists. Metabolic and anatomic abnormalities identified, were grouped into muscular, neurovascular, and skin lesions. The [18F]FDG uptake of each lesion was compared with that of corresponding areas in controls using a Mann-Whitney U-test. RESULTS: On PET images, muscular abnormalities were found in five patients, neurovascular abnormalities in four patients, and skin abnormalities in two patients. However, on MRI images, no muscular abnormalities were detected. Neurovascular abnormalities and skin abnormalities in the affected limb were identified on MRI in one and two patients, respectively. The difference in [18F]FDG uptake between the patients and the controls was significant in muscle (P = .018) and neurovascular bundle (P = .0005). CONCLUSIONS: The increased uptake of [18F]FDG in the symptomatic areas likely reflects the increased metabolism due to the inflammatory response causing pain. Therefore, our approach combining metabolic [18F]FDG PET and anatomic MR imaging may offer noninvasive monitoring of the distribution and progression of inflammatory changes associated with CRPS.

Acute Pain Predictors of Remote Postoperative Pain Resolution After Hand Surgery.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP) is a global issue with high prevalence. This study compared acute pain descriptors among patients undergoing carpal tunnel release (CTR) or trigger finger release (TFR). We hypothesized worst pain intensity on postoperative day (POD) 10 would be best to predict the time to pain resolution. METHODS: In this secondary analysis of a negative, randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled trial, adult veterans undergoing CTR or TFR were enrolled January 2012-January 2014, with data analysis February 2020-October 2020. Participants were randomized to receive minocycline 200 mg or placebo 2 h prior to the operation, then minocycline 100 mg or placebo twice daily for 5 days. The Brief Pain Inventory, assessed daily, captured three pain scores: average and worst pain over the past 24 h, and current pain intensity. Fifteen acute pain descriptors based on the pain scores (clusters, mean, median, pain scores on POD 10, and linear slopes) were compared as predictors of time to pain resolution. RESULTS: Of 131 randomized participants, 114 (83 CTR, 31 TFR) were included. Average pain over the last 24 h reported on POD 10 best predicted time to pain cessation. Every one-point increase in the average pain score was associated with a 36.0% reduced rate of pain cessation (HR, 0.64, 95% CI 0.55-0.74, p < 0.001). Average pain on POD 10 was significantly associated with the development of CPSP at 90 days (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.30-2.33, p value < 0.001). The optimal cutoff score for the high-risk group was determined as average pain on POD 10 ≥ 3. CONCLUSIONS: This study validates prior work and demonstrates the importance of assessing pain severity on POD 10 to identify patients at high risk for CPSP who are most likely to benefit from early pain intervention. Future research in diverse surgical cohorts is needed to further validate pain assessment on POD 10 as a significant predictor of CPSP.

Association of mortality and aspirin prescription for COVID-19 patients at the Veterans Health Administration.

There is growing evidence that thrombotic and inflammatory pathways contribute to the severity of COVID-19. Common medications such as aspirin, that mitigate these pathways, may decrease COVID-19 mortality. This retrospective assessment was designed to quantify the correlation between pre-diagnosis aspirin and mortality for COVID-19 positive patients in our care. Data from the Veterans Health Administration national electronic health record database was utilized for the evaluation. Veterans from across the country with a first positive COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction lab result were included in the evaluation which comprised 35,370 patients from March 2, 2020 to September 13, 2020 for the 14-day mortality cohort and 32,836 patients from March 2, 2020 to August 28, 2020 for the 30-day mortality cohort. Patients were matched via propensity scores and the odds of mortality were then compared. Among COVID-19 positive Veterans, preexisting aspirin prescription was associated with a statistically and clinically significant decrease in overall mortality at 14-days (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.32-0.46) and at 30-days (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.33-0.45), cutting the odds of mortality by more than half. Findings demonstrated that pre-diagnosis aspirin prescription was strongly associated with decreased mortality rates for Veterans diagnosed with COVID-19. Prospective evaluation is required to more completely assess this correlation and its implications for patient care.

Testing proposed quality measures for treatment of carpal tunnel syndrome: feasibility, magnitude of quality gaps, and reliability.

BACKGROUND: The American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons and American Society for Surgery of the Hand recently proposed three quality measures for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS): Measure 1 - Discouraging routine use of Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for diagnosis of CTS; Measure 2 - Discouraging the use of adjunctive surgical procedures during carpal tunnel release (CTR); and Measure 3 - Discouraging the routine use of occupational and/or physical therapy after CTR. The goal of this study were to 1) Assess the feasibility of using the specifications to calculate the measures in real-world healthcare data and identify aspects of the specifications that might be clarified or improved; 2) Determine if the measures identify important variation in treatment quality that justifies expending resources for their further development and implementation; 3) Assess the facility- and surgeon-level reliability of measures. METHODS: The measures were calculated using national data from the Veterans Health Administration (VA) Corporate Data Warehouse for three fiscal years (FY; 2016-18). Facility- and surgeon-level performance and reliability were examined. To expand the testing context, the measures were also tested using data from an academic medical center. RESULTS: The denominator of Measure 1 was 132,049 VA patients newly diagnosed with CTS. The denominators of Measures 2 and 3 were 20,813 CTRs received by VA patients. The median facility-level performances on the three measures were 96.5, 100, and 94.7%, respectively. Of 130 VA facilities, none had < 90% performance on Measure 1. Among 111 facilities that performed CTRs, only 1 facility had < 90% performance on Measure 2. In contrast, 21 facilities (18.9%) and 333 surgeons (17.8%) had lower than 90% performance on Measure 3 (Median facility- and surgeon-level reliability for Measure 3 were very high (0.95 and 0.96 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Measure 3 displayed adequate facility- and surgeon-level variability and reliability to justify its use for quality monitoring and improvement purposes. Measures 1 and 2 lacked quality gaps, suggesting they should not be implemented in VA and need to be tested in other healthcare settings. Opportunities exist to refine the specifications of Measure 3 to ensure that different organizations calculate the measure in the same way.

Automated EHR score to predict COVID-19 outcomes at US Department of Veterans Affairs.

The sudden emergence of COVID-19 has brought significant challenges to the care of Veterans. An improved ability to predict a patient's clinical course would facilitate optimal care decisions, resource allocation, family counseling, and strategies for safely easing distancing restrictions. The Care Assessment Need (CAN) score is an existing risk assessment tool within the Veterans Health Administration (VA), and produces a score from 0 to 99, with a higher score correlating to a greater risk. The model was originally designed for the nonacute outpatient setting and is automatically calculated from structured data variables in the electronic health record. This multisite retrospective study of 6591 Veterans diagnosed with COVID-19 from March 2, 2020 to May 26, 2020 was designed to assess the utility of repurposing the CAN score as objective and automated risk assessment tool to promptly enhance clinical decision making for Veterans diagnosed with COVID-19. We performed bivariate analyses on the dichotomized CAN 1-year mortality score (high vs. low risk) and each patient outcome using Chi-square tests of independence. Logistic regression models using the continuous CAN score were fit to assess its predictive power for outcomes of interest. Results demonstrated that a CAN score greater than 50 was significantly associated with the following outcomes after positive COVID-19 test: hospital admission (OR 4.6), prolonged hospital stay (OR 4.5), ICU admission (3.1), prolonged ICU stay (OR 2.9), mechanical ventilation (OR 2.6), and mortality (OR 7.2). Repurposing the CAN score offers an efficient way to risk-stratify COVID-19 Veterans. As a result of the compelling statistical results, and automation, this tool is well positioned for broad use across the VA to enhance clinical decision-making.

Association of Preoperative Patient Frailty and Operative Stress With Postoperative Mortality.

Importance: Patients with frailty have higher risk for postoperative mortality and complications; however, most research has focused on small groups of high-risk procedures. The associations among frailty, operative stress, and mortality are poorly understood. Objective: To assess the association between frailty and mortality at varying levels of operative stress as measured by the Operative Stress Score, a novel measure created for this study. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study included veterans in the Veterans Administration Surgical Quality Improvement Program from April 1, 2010, through March 31, 2014, who underwent a noncardiac surgical procedure at Veterans Health Administration Hospitals and had information available on vital status (whether the patient was alive or deceased) at 1 year postoperatively. A Delphi consensus method was used to stratify surgical procedures into 5 categories of physiologic stress. Exposures: Frailty as measured by the Risk Analysis Index and operative stress as measured by the Operative Stress Score. Main Outcomes and Measures: Postoperative mortality at 30, 90, and 180 days. Results: Of 432 828 unique patients (401 453 males [92.8%]; mean (SD) age, 61.0 [12.9] years), 36 579 (8.5%) were frail and 9113 (2.1%) were very frail. The 30-day mortality rate among patients who were frail and underwent the lowest-stress surgical procedures (eg, cystoscopy) was 1.55% (95% CI, 1.20%-1.97%) and among patients with frailty who underwent the moderate-stress surgical procedures (eg, laparoscopic cholecystectomy) was 5.13% (95% CI, 4.79%-5.48%); these rates exceeded the 1% mortality rate often used to define high-risk surgery. Among patients who were very frail, 30-day mortality rates were higher after the lowest-stress surgical procedures (10.34%; 95% CI, 7.73%-13.48%) and after the moderate-stress surgical procedures (18.74%; 95% CI, 17.72%-19.80%). For patients who were frail and very frail, mortality continued to increase at 90 and 180 days, reaching 43.00% (95% CI, 41.69%-44.32%) for very frail patients at 180 days after moderate-stress surgical procedures. Conclusions and Relevance: We developed a novel operative stress score to quantify physiologic stress for surgical procedures. Patients who were frail and very frail had high rates of postoperative mortality across all levels of the Operative Stress Score. These findings suggest that frailty screening should be applied universally because low- and moderate-stress procedures may be high risk among patients who are frail.

Electromyographic Analysis of Grip.

This prospective cohort study used video electromyography synchronized analysis to determine the dynamic use of extrinsic and intrinsic finger flexion during grasp. Light fist formation primarily involved the flexor digitorum profundus with either the flexor digitorum superficialis or intrinsics. In contrast, both the flexor digitorum superficialis and intrinsics were recruited in all tight fist video electromyography. However, the sequence of recruitment differed between patients in tight fist formation. Injured patients demonstrated a unique pattern of recruitment based on injury. The authors conclude that the flexor digitorum profundus is the workhorse in composite fist formation but the roles of the flexor digitorum superficialis and the intrinsic muscles are less consistent across patients. [Orthopedics. 2019; 42(6):e555-e558.].

Which Stitch? Replacing Anecdote with Evidence in Minor Hand Surgery.

There is currently no consensus on the optimal suture type for palmar skin closure following open carpal tunnel release and trigger finger release. We performed a retrospective analysis of patients in the Palo Alto Veterans Affairs (PAVA) Health Care System who underwent these procedures over a 2-year period to compare 30-day wound outcomes following closure with poliglecaprone 25 (Monocryl), nylon, and chromic gut suture. Out of 312 PAVA cases (133 carpal tunnel release, 179 trigger finger release), incisions closed with Monocryl were significantly less likely to develop dehiscence (Monocryl 2.1%, nylon 10.5%, chromic 10.3%; P = 0.006) and infection (Monocryl 1.6%, nylon 7.4%, chromic 13.8%; P = 0.003), or lead to additional wound-related encounters (Monocryl 8.0%, nylon 16.8%, chromic 24.1%; P = 0.012). On multivariable logistic regression, suture type and diabetes were independent predictors of 30-day wound complications and extra encounters. At PAVA, compared with Monocryl, closures with nylon and chromic were significantly more likely to dehisce and/or become infected [nylon: odds ratio (OR), 5.0; 95% CI, 1.9-13.3 and chromic: OR, 9.3; 95% CI, 2.7-32.4; P = 0.002], and to be associated with an additional encounter (nylon: OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.1-5.3 and chromic: OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.6-12.9; P = 0.007). This has led to using Monocryl as the standard closure for these cases at PAVA.

Metformin prescription status and abdominal aortic aneurysm disease progression in the U.S. veteran population.

BACKGROUND: Identification of a safe and effective medical therapy for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) disease remains a significant unmet medical need. Recent small cohort studies indicate that metformin, the world's most commonly prescribed oral hypoglycemic agent, may limit AAA enlargement. We sought to validate these preliminary observations in a larger cohort. METHODS: All patients with asymptomatic AAA disease managed in the Veterans Affairs Health Care System between 2003 and 2013 were identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes. Those with a concomitant diagnosis of diabetes mellitus who also received two or more abdominal imaging studies (computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, or ultrasound) documenting the presence and size of an AAA, separated by at least 1 year, were included for review. Maximal AAA diameters were determined from radiologic reports. Further data acquisition was censored after surgical AAA repair, when performed. Comorbidities, active smoking status, and outpatient medication records (within 6 months of AAA diagnosis) were also queried. Yearly AAA enlargement rates, as a function of metformin treatment status, were compared using two statistical models expressed in millimeters per year: a multivariate linear regression (model 1) and a multivariate mixed-effects model with random intercept and random slope (model 2). RESULTS: A total of 13,834 patients with 58,833 radiographic records were included in the analysis, with radiology imaging follow-up of 4.2 ± 2.6 years (mean ± standard deviation). The average age of the patients at AAA diagnosis was 69.8 ± 7.8 years, and 39.7% had a metformin prescription within ±6 months of AAA. The mean growth rate for AAAs in the entire cohort was 1.4 ± 2.0 mm/y by model 1 analysis and 1.3 ± 1.6 mm/y by model 2 analysis. The unadjusted mean rate of AAA growth was 1.2 ± 1.9 mm/y for patients prescribed metformin compared with 1.5 ± 2.2 mm/y for those without (P < .001), a 20% decrease. This effect remained significant when adjusted for variables relevant on AAA progression: metformin prescription was associated with a reduction in yearly AAA growth rate of -0.23 mm (95% confidence interval, -0.35 to -0.16; P < .001) by model 1 analysis and 0.20 mm/y (95% confidence interval, -0.26 to -0.14; P < .001) by model 2 analysis. A subset analysis of 7462 patients with baseline AAA size of 35 to 49 mm showed a similar inhibitory effect (1.4 ± 2.0 mm/y to 1.7 ± 2.2 mm/y; P < .001). Patients' factors associated with an increased yearly AAA growth rate were baseline AAA size, metastatic solid tumors, active smoking, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and chronic renal disease. Factors associated with decreased yearly AAA growth rates included prescriptions for angiotensin II type 1 receptor blockers or sulfonylureas and the presence of diabetes-related complications. CONCLUSIONS: In a nationwide analysis of diabetic Veterans Affairs patients, prescription for metformin was associated with decreased AAA enlargement. These findings provide further support for the conduct of prospective clinical trials to test the ability of metformin to limit progression of early AAA disease.